Market

How to Read the Montgomery County Market Without the Headlines

National headlines describe a country. Four local numbers describe your street. Here is how to read them.

A national headline says the market is hot, or cold, or crashing, or back. Your house does not live in a national headline. It lives on a street, in a school district, at a price point, in a season. Reading the market means reading four numbers for that slice, and ignoring almost everything else.

Months of inventory: the balance number

How long the current supply of homes would take to sell at the current pace. Around four to six months has historically meant balance, lower favors sellers, higher favors buyers. The number that matters is not the county's but your segment's, because new construction along I-45 and established Woodlands resale can sit at very different levels in the same month.

Days on market: the honesty number

How long homes actually take to go under contract in your area and price band. Rising days on market means buyers are hesitating, and it shows up in a neighborhood before it shows up in prices. When I set a pricing strategy, this number and its direction over the last quarter weigh more than any headline.

List to sale ratio: the negotiation number

What homes actually sell for as a percentage of asking. At a hundred percent, sellers hold the line. Meaningfully below, negotiation is open, and your offer strategy should know it. Above a hundred, you are writing offers in competition and should read the option period piece before you do.

Price reductions: the early warning

The share of active listings that have taken a cut. It rises before the other numbers move, which makes it the closest thing the market has to a weather forecast. A neighborhood where a third of listings just reduced is telling sellers something the last closed sale has not admitted yet.

Where do I get these numbers for my street?

From someone with MLS access who works your specific area, read quarterly rather than daily. I prepare this exact four number picture, scoped to the neighborhood and price band in question, for every seller consultation and serious buyer I work with. The market is not a mood. It is four numbers and their direction, and they are knowable.

Frequently asked questions

Is Montgomery County a buyer's or seller's market right now?

It depends on the segment and the month, which is exactly why the four numbers matter. Ask for months of inventory, days on market, list to sale ratio, and price cut share for your specific area and price band rather than a county-wide answer.

What is a balanced months of inventory number?

Historically around four to six months of supply. Meaningfully less favors sellers, meaningfully more favors buyers, and the direction of change matters as much as the level.

Why do national housing headlines not match my neighborhood?

National data averages thousands of markets moving in different directions. Segments within one county routinely diverge, so neighborhood and price band data is the only version that should shape your decision.

How often should I check market numbers before selling?

Quarterly direction matters more than daily noise. Reviewing the four numbers for your segment a quarter before listing, then again at pricing, is enough to set an honest strategy.

Where can I get market data for my specific neighborhood?

From an agent with MLS access who works your area. Public portals show pieces, but months of inventory, list to sale ratios, and reduction shares scoped to a neighborhood come from MLS reporting.

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